Arnett Moultrie and Mississippi State now looks like a team unsure of its NCAA future. (Photo: Dennis Adair/dbadair on flickr)
Selection Sunday is just two weeks from Sunday and many teams are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives. The NCAA Tournament will be made up of 68 teams with 31 conference champions being given an automatic bid. The teams currently in first place in their respective conferences will be in all caps and are presumed champions at the moment. In addition to the 31 presumed conference champions, 23 teams at the moment can be considered solidly in. The 31 presumed conference champs and the 23 schools considered to be solidly in make up 54 teams leaving only 14 slots open to bubble teams. Each week, the bubble will be updated leading up to the highly anticipated Selection Sunday. Here is a look at the teams on the bubble and who are currently in and currently out:
Games played through February 24th
ACC: Maryland moves onto the bubble
Teams Solidly In: DUKE, North Carolina, Florida State, Virginia
On the Bubble:
NC State (18-10, 7-6 ACC, RPI 58)
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Georgia Tech
As of now: Out. No key wins could prove to be a killer for the Wolfpack
Miami (16-10, 7-6 ACC, RPI 46)
Key Wins: Duke
Bad Losses: Ole Miss
As of now: Out. Allowing Maryland to come back the other night could wind up being a killer for Miami.
Maryland (16-11, 6-7 ACC, RPI 136)
Key Wins: Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Iona
As of now: Out. Maryland played its way back onto the bubble against Miami.
Big 12: Kansas State moves from the bubble to solidly in.
Teams Solidly In: KANSAS, Missouri, Baylor, Kansas State
On the Bubble:
Iowa State (20-8, 10-5 Big 12, RPI 34)
Key Wins: Kansas, Kansas State
Bad Losses: Drake, Northern Iowa
As of now: In. The Cyclones are one win away from being a lock.
Texas (17-11, 7-8 Big 12, RPI 25)
Key Wins: Kansas State
Bad Losses: Oregon State
As of now: Out. A tough week has the Longhorns NCAA hopes in serious doubt.
Big East
Teams Solidly In: SYRACUSE, Marquette, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Louisville, Cincinnati
On the Bubble:
South Florida (17-11, 10-5 Big East, RPI 69)
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Penn State, Auburn, Old Dominion
As of now: In. 10 Big East wins and a valiant effort at Syracuse has the Bulls in.
Seton Hall (19-9, 8-8 Big East, RPI 38)
Key Wins: Georgetown
Bad Losses: Villanova
As of now: In. Tuesday’s win over Georgetown may have punched the Pirates ticket.
Connecticut (17-10, 7-8 Big East, RPI 37)
Key Wins: Florida State, Harvard, Notre Dame
Bad Losses: Rutgers, UCF, Tennessee
As of now: In. A win over #2 Syracuse on Saturday could punch UCONN’s ticket.
West Virginia (17-12, 7-9 Big East, RPI 43)
Key Wins: Georgetown, Cincinnati
Bad Losses: Kent State, St. John’s, Pittsburgh
As of now: In. The Mountaineers are the last team in and may need to win their final two regular season games.
Big Ten
Teams Solidly In: MICHIGAN STATE, Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Indiana
On the Bubble:
Purdue (18-10, 8-7 Big Ten, RPI 33)
Key Wins: Temple
Bad Losses: Butler, Penn State
As of now: In. The Boilermakers have a tough finish upcoming, but a strong overall resume’.
Minnesota (17-11, 5-10 Big Ten, RPI 52)
Key Wins: Indiana
Bad Losses: Iowa
As of now: Out. An upset against Indiana or Wisconsin is a must.
Illinois (16-12, 5-10 Big Ten, RPI 63)
Key Wins: Gonzaga, Ohio State, Michigan State
Bad Losses: Penn State, Nebraska
As of now: Out. A 23-point-loss at Nebraska could have Illinois NIT bound.
Northwestern (16-11, 6-9 Big Ten, RPI 56)
Key Wins: Michigan State
Bad Losses: None
As of now: In. Northwestern’s tourney chances are still shaky at the moment.
Pac-12: UCLA has fallen off the bubble
Teams Solidly In: CALIFORNIA
On the Bubble:
Washington (19-8, 12-3 Pac-12, RPI 71)
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: South Dakota State
As of now: In. A solid win over Arizona last weekend bought the Huskies some breathing room.
Arizona (20-9, 11-5 Pac-12, RPI 41)
Key Wins: California
Bad Losses: UCLA
As of now: In. The wins aren’t piling up, but Arizona passes the eye test and has a good RPI.
Colorado (18-9, 10-5 Pac-12, RPI 100)
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Wyoming, UCLA
As of now: Out. The Buffaloes have 0 wins against teams in the RPI 100 in the non-conference.
Oregon (19-8, 10-5 Pac-12, RPI 70)
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Oregon State
As of now: Out. Winning out would get the Ducks to 22 wins which could get them back to the dance.
Stanford (19-9, 9-7 Pac-12, RPI 47)
Key Wins: None
Bad Losses: Butler, Washington State, UCLA
As of now: Out. The Cardinal must win at Utah and beat Cal at home if they hope to dance.
SEC: Vanderbilt moves from the bubble to solidly in. Tennessee, Ole Miss and Arkansas have fallen off the bubble.
Teams Solidly In: KENTUCKY, Florida, Vanderbilt
Mississippi State (19-9, 6-7 SEC, RPI 77)
Key Wins: Vanderbilt
Bad Losses: Georgia, Auburn, Arkansas, Ole Miss
As of now: In. A bad week has the Bulldogs as one of the last three in.
Alabama (18-9, 7-6 SEC, RPI 27)
Key Wins: Wichita State
Bad Losses: Dayton, South Carolina
As of now: In. A 2-0 week has ‘Bama breathing easy.
LSU (17-10, 7-6 SEC, RPI 73)
Key Wins: Marquette
Bad Losses: Coastal Carolina, South Alabama, Arkansas
As of now: In. The Tigers close with three very winnable games.
Mid-Majors: Xavier and VCU move into the tournament; La Salle, Southern Miss and Colorado State move onto the bubble; Cleveland State, Kent State, Loyola Marymount and Wyoming have fallen off the bubble
Teams Solidly In: Saint Louis, UNLV, San Diego State, Creighton, Gonzaga, BYU
Bubble Teams In: Xavier, Virginia Commonwealth
Bubble Teams Out: UMASS, St. Joe’s, Dayton, George Mason, Southern Mississippi, UCF, Colorado State
As of now: Xavier is just 17-10, but has wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue and Cincinnati in the non-conference. The Musketeers will have an opportunity for another signature win on Tuesday as they travel to Saint Louis. St. Joe’s and Dayton did well in the non-conference, but lack strong enough overall resume’s. UMASS has played well in conference, but has done little outside of it. George Mason and Southern Miss are teams that could finish with high win totals, but lack signature wins. Colorado State moved onto the bubble while UCF blew a healthy lead in a loss to Rice. Virginia Commonwealth’s best win came against bubble team USF, but the Rams have won 13 of 14 and have a top 50 RPI.
